TekTidbits

A GREAT Letter to Obama, From a Startup Guy

As originally posted on The Packet Rag December 7th - let's help Praveen get enough exposure so that Obama actually reads this well written letter! Perhaps some of his suggestions will even be taken, who knows?

Yet another memo to the president from a startup guy

With all the advice that our President-Elect is getting, I couldn't resist adding my favorite for his kind consideration. My request is shaped by what I see as an opportunity for America to retake the lead in telecom/datacom and dominate it for years to come.

Before I propose my idea, I wanted to take a shot at first figuring out how much you have to really spend on stimulating the economy. My guesstimate is that you'll need at least $1.1T/year of capital injection for the next couple of years to make up for what we have lost! Here is the un-scientific method I used to come up with this number:

As we all know, much of our economy in the past few years was driven by mortgage spending, military spending, and tax cuts. It is not easy to figure out how much money was really behind the mortgage market because of the multiplier effect (and the fact that we don't know the real decline in mortgage asset prices). So I took a short cut - According to Fannie Mae's numbers their ARM-based mortgage originations was over $750B in 2006 (this was as high as ~$900B in 2005, but came down to $400B in 2007 as the meltdown started).  I took this ARM-based financing component as a proxy for the bad mortgages in the recent past, and therefore assumed that this source of funding will be non-existent under the current tight-credit conditions. As a result, the $750B+/year inflow of money from the ARM-based financing market is all but over. Note that I am only looking at the spending at the top of the mortgage food chain - there are a lot of multiplier effects that result from this - i.e. the loans result in new houses being built, which creates demand for home builders/contractors/home equipment/kitchen equipment/ garden equipment/realtors/finance companies/etc.etc. So the true loss to the GDP from the mortgage disaster could be much more. For the sake of simplicity, I am ignoring Freddie Mac.

The rest of the $1.1Trillion/year was made up of  $200B/year in military spending and about $150B in tax cuts, both of which are slowly being clamped down. So we have to really make up for $1.1T+/year - Granted, my math is approximate - but I think it is in the ballpark of prviding a "baseline" to the minimum injection we need.

Clearly, this will become a huge debt burden if we invest in the wrong sectors. Furthermore, investments have to be made such that the resulting opportunities cannot be outsourced. One of the ways this can be done is by investing in technologies that are physically tied to this country. Also, we need to invest in sectors that will have a huge multiplier effect in creating jobs for multiple industries and across multiple regions within the US.

The creation of the Internet was a classic example of this - America pioneered the creation of the Internet by creating the ARPANET to interconnect our government/military and educational institutions, and as a result we reaped the rewards via high-tech growth in the 90's. We need something similar now. So here is the suggestion from my vantage point, and it will only cost a few billion and will have huge multiplier effects in multiple industries within the US.

Mr. President Elect, I request you to fund federal/state agencies and universities to deploy tele-presence voice-video infrastructure interconnected via high-speed networks. This has several benefits:

1. It will drive job growth in the telecom/datacom service industry in retooling networks for VoIP and Video readiness. This job growth will be broad-based across the entire countly.
2. It will drive the creation of more MPLS-capable networks, which drives the creation of jobs in the US service provider space
3. It will drive faster adoption of VoIP and Video in a business-to-business environment, which drives the creation of new business models in the service sector, and new startups that pursue these opportunities
4. It will drive new forms of government-to-people communication which will reduce wasteful spending and create new business opportunities (like how the Arpanet eventually led to e-commerce and B2B-commerce)
5. It will give certainty and confidence to VCs (who are sitting on hordes of cash) to invest in new/existing US-based startups to pursue opportunities in this space. The VCs will invest for opportunities that span the next 5-10 years, thus creating jobs in crucial hi-tech areas.
6. It will reduce the need for business travel and therefore help bring down our dependence on oil as well as reduce global warming
7. Most importantly, the build-out of such a US-based infrastructure will create and keep jobs in the US!

Thanks!

Praveen

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With all the advice that our President-Elect is getting, I couldn't resist adding my favorite for his kind consideration. My request is shaped by what I see as an opportunity for America to retake the lead in telecom/datacom and dominate it for years to come.

Before I propose my idea, I wanted to take a shot at first figuring out how much you have to really spend on stimulating the economy. My guesstimate is that you'll need at least $1.1T/year of capital injection for the next couple of years to make up for what we have lost! Here is the un-scientific method I used to come up with this number:

As we all know, much of our economy in the past few years was driven by mortgage spending, military spending, and tax cuts. It is not easy to figure out how much money was really behind the mortgage market because of the multiplier effect (and the fact that we don't know the real decline in mortgage asset prices). So I took a short cut - According to Fannie Mae's numbers their ARM-based mortgage originations was over $750B in 2006 (this was as high as ~$900B in 2005, but came down to $400B in 2007 as the meltdown started).  I took this ARM-based financing component as a proxy for the bad mortgages in the recent past, and therefore assumed that this source of funding will be non-existent under the current tight-credit conditions. As a result, the $750B+/year inflow of money from the ARM-based financing market is all but over. Note that I am only looking at the spending at the top of the mortgage food chain - there are a lot of multiplier effects that result from this - i.e. the loans result in new houses being built, which creates demand for home builders/contractors/home equipment/kitchen equipment/ garden equipment/realtors/finance companies/etc.etc. So the true loss to the GDP from the mortgage disaster could be much more. For the sake of simplicity, I am ignoring Freddie Mac.

The rest of the $1.1Trillion/year was made up of  $200B/year in military spending and about $150B in tax cuts, both of which are slowly being clamped down. So we have to really make up for $1.1T+/year - Granted, my math is approximate - but I think it is in the ballpark of prviding a "baseline" to the minimum injection we need.

Clearly, this will become a huge debt burden if we invest in the wrong sectors. Furthermore, investments have to be made such that the resulting opportunities cannot be outsourced. One of the ways this can be done is by investing in technologies that are physically tied to this country. Also, we need to invest in sectors that will have a huge multiplier effect in creating jobs for multiple industries and across multiple regions within the US.

The creation of the Internet was a classic example of this - America pioneered the creation of the Internet by creating the ARPANET to interconnect our government/military and educational institutions, and as a result we reaped the rewards via high-tech growth in the 90's. We need something similar now. So here is the suggestion from my vantage point, and it will only cost a few billion and will have huge multiplier effects in multiple industries within the US.

Mr. President Elect, I request you to fund federal/state agencies and universities to deploy tele-presence voice-video infrastructure interconnected via high-speed networks. This has several benefits:

1. It will drive job growth in the telecom/datacom service industry in retooling networks for VoIP and Video readiness. This job growth will be broad-based across the entire countly.
2. It will drive the creation of more MPLS-capable networks, which drives the creation of jobs in the US service provider space
3. It will drive faster adoption of VoIP and Video in a business-to-business environment, which drives the creation of new business models in the service sector, and new startups that pursue these opportunities
4. It will drive new forms of government-to-people communication which will reduce wasteful spending and create new business opportunities (like how the Arpanet eventually led to e-commerce and B2B-commerce)
5. It will give certainty and confidence to VCs (who are sitting on hordes of cash) to invest in new/existing US-based startups to pursue opportunities in this space. The VCs will invest for opportunities that span the next 5-10 years, thus creating jobs in crucial hi-tech areas.
6. It will reduce the need for business travel and therefore help bring down our dependence on oil as well as reduce global warming
7. Most importantly, the build-out of such a US-based infrastructure will create and keep jobs in the US!

Thanks!

Praveen

Etherspeak Announces Unlimited SIP-Trunking Pricing Plans as AT&T Lays Off Land Line Personnel

A few minutes ago, my friends at Etherspeak forwarded their press release to me, announcing the availability of pricing for unlimited SIP trunking services -their SureTrunk product.  Priced at $32.50/trunk/month for service throughout the US and Canada, SureTrunk is also the only native service designed exclusively for and with the Shoretel platform. 

From the press release:

"This is a sign of our reinforcing commitment towards supporting the resellers and customers of the ShoreTel community. The ShoreTel Unified Communications solution has achieved significant market penetration and we are very pleased to help customers unleash the power and flexibility through SIP-based communications," said Neil Darling, President & CEO of EtherSpeak.

In stark contrast to this news, today, AT&T announced a layoff of 12K workers - all from their wireline business. 

As always, economic downturns serve to sweep out the old and ring in the new.  SIP trunking is destined to move onwards and upwards, and will be especially successful in a down market as a cost cutting method.  Land line phones are doomed, and have been for quite some time.  Hopefully these AT&T workers can rise to the challenge posed by converged networks and find themselves progressive positions in new companies like Etherspeak. 

I am quite impressed with the team at Etherspeak - they are one of those who will prosper in these tough times! 

 

What Will Be the Next New Technology?

On the way to a meeting in San Francisco today, my coworkers and I were discussing what we would do if we suddenly became President of the US.  This will never happen, of course, but it is certainly fun to speculate!  One thing we all agreed upon - outsourcing has been great in some ways and harmful in others.  A country has to be judicious in what it decides to outsource. The key for countries, companies (and individuals) is to outsource weaknesses NOT strengths.  The US has begun to outsource innovation, which has traditionally been one of it's strengths.  Not good. 

How to reverse this trend?  Not easy, as how do you bring back what is already gone? 

The answer is a whole new industry and new technology.  Ah, but what will that be?  Biotech is still the industry of the future, and may always be just that.  New and alternative energy sources?  This is one of them.

What about teleportation?  Could this be a possibility?  I think so, but not in my lifetime.  What about the development of alternative food sources. Another idea, and one that I think has not yet been explored fully.

No matter what, the US most certainly needs a new passion - a new avenue in which to contribute from our strength, innovation.  And this time, we need to hold on to our strength and outsource our weaknesses.  

What Desktop Computer is Lighter Than a Laptop - And Consumes As Much Power As a Clock Radio?

Stumped?  No, it is not one of the new UMPCs (after all, it IS a desktop) - but a Linux-based ultra-green PC called the CherryPal.

This revolutionary new PC is designed to minimize the impact of old electronics junk on landfills - it is expected to last for 10 years:  an amazing concept in the age of planned obsolence.  It has no moving parts, and instead uses the concept of "cloud computing" - the CherryPal company gives you 50GB of Internet based storage free of charge and hosts the data center your files occupy. This is another solid blow to the traditional hard drive based PC!

Along with your hosted storage, CherryPal offers defense grade security and hosted antivirus and other systems support.  I am excited to receive my new machine for this reason alone.  With five PCs in my home, I spend hours every weekend running antivirus, spyware, and registry maintenance software. I am not sure what I will do with all my new found free time!

As CherryPal is Linux based, it doesn't run the traditional Microsoft Office suite.  It does come loaded with a proprietary instant messenger, iTunes, and OpenOffice.org - a web-based Microsoft alternative. 

A new CherryPal will run you $249 and comes with free 24/7 support - which is another refreshing change from the Intel/Microsoft infrastructure.  And the specifications are respectable, as follows:

Freescale’s MPC5121e mobileGT processor, 800 MIPS (400 MHz) of processing
256 MB of DDR2 DRAM
4GB NAND Flash-based solid state drive
WiFi 802.11b/g Wi-Fi
Two USB 2.0 ports
One 10/100 Ethernet with RJ-45 jack
One VGA DB-15 display out jack
Headphone level stereo audio out 3.5mm jack
9vDC 2.5mm 10 watt AC-DC adapter power supply
Weighs 10 ounces
1.3” high, 5.8” x 4.2” wide

If you visit CherryPal's website and enter the promo code CPP293, you will receive a $10 rebate too!

We all have a responsibility to go green and stop global warming!  Here is one more giant step we can take, without sacrificing our love of technology. 

LCDs in Short Supply? Samsung to the Rescue

South Korean electronics giant Samsung Electronics has just announced plans to invest $2.2B in the expansion of its LCD manufacturing 8th generation line.  Although the company has collaborated on LCD production with Sony in the past, this announcement states that Samsung is investing on its own.

LCD shortages have hampered the introduction and development of new handheld devices, and demand is increasing.  This looks like a good, and timely move by Samsung.

No Email Days for Increased Productivity

The latest trend in high tech companies around the globe is "No Email" days.  Intel Corporation is the latest to adopt this trend, citing engineers who sit in the next cubicle who email each other rather than walk two steps to have a face-to-face conversation. 

Email is not strictly forbidden on these days, just discouraged.  This is also said to help those who are working on long projects that require rapt attention for whom email is an unwelcome distraction. 

Does this work?  Studies show that some people check their emails as much as 30-40 times per hour.  If those who are doing this are not in jobs that require frequent interaction, such as sales, HR, or marketing - then this would be a definite productivity hit!

For myself, if someone took away my email - I would lose key deals as a result, as I am a Sales Manager. 

Reading this has forced me to get out of my chair and go talk to my neighbors instead of shooting them a quick note!  Who knows, maybe it will help some people lose weight through increased activity?

Photo Applications Come to A Bedroom Near You

We have come a long way since the first T-shirt printing paper hit the stores, allowing us to present our friends with T-shirts featuring goofy pictures of themselves in awkward positions!  Now, Vision Bedding allows you to upload a photo and have it made into a comforter, pillow, blanket, or even a dog bed!  This presents tons of possibilities for the upcoming Christmas season.

If you don't have any great photos ready, you can always choose from one of their premade options.  I love motorcycles, so among my personal favorites are the Motocross Bedding products. Pictured above is one entitled The Race is On - it really captures the excitement of a Motocross race and would be perfect for a motocycle crazy teen.

This set, like most of the premade photo sets, can be ordered as a duvet, bedspread, blanket, lap blanket, throw pillow, or pillow sham.  The blankets use plush fleece for the bottom, and microsuede for the top.  All use high quality fabrics with serged construction.

Other premade photo categories include sports, snowboarding (great for my stepson), horses and other animals, cars, and flowers. 

(Paid post for Vision Bedding)

WiMedia Group Announces First Certified UWB Chipsets

Most of us have at least 20 or 30 UWB cables lying around, and USB is the standard of choice for short range PC connectivity.  The WiMedia Group has been working to help us reduce USB cable clutter by creating a wireless USB standard - called UWB.

Today, a press release announces the first certified chipsets for this new standard, which offers up to 480Mbps connectivity - and promises low power close range connectivity for streaming media, etc.

Twelve vendors have been certified, with the front runners being Intel, Alereon, and Staccato.

UWB is now certified in a number of countries, including the European Union. However, it will use different frequencies in different countries, which can be an issue.

Other issues include possible coexistence issues with WiMax, and strong competition with other standards such as 802.11 n and Bluetooth.  Will UWB win marketshare?  With Intel behind them in a push marketing effort - I am betting on it.  That, and the fact that consumers are used to wired USB will drive the market acceptance forward. 

Nabaztag Comes for Christmas to Our House

After reading my blog, my daughter listed Nabaztag the WiFi Bunny at the top of her Christmas list!  She unwrapped her little bunny gleefully, and now its happy sounds are filling our home. 

I have to hand it to the folks at Violet, they have innovated a really incredible gadget that kids just love. It just played Mambo No 5 amid a light show from its belly that was really amusing to watch.  It it also going to wake her up for school to AC/DCs Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - yes, she is hard to wake.

However, the Violet team did NOT anticipate the volume of these little fellows they were going to sell over the Holiday season.  Their servers were down until two days after Christmas, and we could not register our new bunny to my daughters great disappointment.  Things seem to be fine in bunnyland now, and we can send our bunny messages.  He still cannot receive RSS feeds at present, but the company blog assures us that they are working on this.

I love being able to send the bunny any message that he then "reads" to my daughter.  Messages such as " Take a shower" or " Do your homework" are going to be easier for her to act on coming from Nabaztag than from her mother!!

technorati tags: Nabaztag, Wifi Bunny, Wifi gadgets, technology, gadgets, Violet, wifi gadget
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Is Google Taking On Paypal?

This summer, Google launched a new service; Google Checkout.  This service is fully integrated with Adwords and provides merchants a new way to allow customers to quickly and securely pay for goods and services. 

For every $1 you spend in Adwords, you can process $10 worth of sales for free.  After that, you pay $2% per transaction with a $0.20 transaction fee. Adwords campaigns are marked with a Google checkout badge, clearly identifying a merchant as a Google Checkout seller.  Google actively protects against invalid transactions, and will fight for you if you receive an invalid chargeback. 

The future of this program is obvious - this could be easily tied into Google Analytics for website management and tracking.  Next, Google could offer a credit card similar to the Paypal card, with preferential terms. 

Looking at the official Google blog - merchants already signed up for this program include Starbucks, Jockey, Levis, Dockers, Buy.com, Timberland, and Zales. 

Will this service kill Paypal?  Many think not.  From Techcrunch:

I like having a store of money in my PayPal account and automating monthly subscription payments. Neither of these appear to be an option with Google Checkout. I don’t know why I’d use Google Checkout over PayPal if I had a choice, and if I don’t have a choice I’m liable to resent it. Maybe someday all this data on my shopping habits will be used to better serve ads I’m interested in via Minority Report type billboards, Google style. I don’t know.

Google also doesn't offer peer-to-peer transactions like Paypal, and Paypal DOES conduct 70% of the financial transactions that occur on Ebay.

But for merchants who use Adwords campaigns, this service will be invaluable.  2% per transaction as opposed to 2.9% per transaction sounds like a deal to me.  It also seems that Google's security is far superior to Paypals at present, although I am sure that the competition will cause that to change and quickly.

A key component of Google's marketing messaging for this product is that consumers can enter their information and then with one password and user name, make multiple transactions.  But will the public be willing to trust their sensitive information to Google?

From ePublishing Daily:

Definately a hit for small merchants. But it still depends on consumers taking it up. Will they be prepared to give away more personal information to Google. My view is that they will. Google already holds so much personal information from their wide variety of offerings and they are clearly playing on their trust factor they have with users to gain acceptance to hold even more information. I wonder how long it will take them to get 100 million users to sign on?

My take on this issue is that Google and Paypal are targeted differently. Paypal will keep their strong eBay customer base and will continue to appeal to merchants who have both a website and Ebay store.  Larger merchants and service merchants who use Google Adwords will flock to Google Checkout in droves.  The market is big enough for both to coexist.  If Paypal had been serving the non eBay market well, there would be no room for Google. 

technorati tags: technology, google, google adwords, google checkout, paypal, Ebay, paypal competition, merchant website solutions, adwords, shopping cart
del.icio.us tags: technology, google, google adwords, google checkout, paypal, Ebay, paypal competition, merchant website solutions, adwords, shopping cart
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